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The Worst is Yet to Come
It has been one of the worst years for wildfires on record in California, but all indications point to the fact that the worst is still yet to come. History bears out that it’s typically in the early fall and after California’s long dry summers that the most and worst wildfires occur.
Already this year over 180,000 acres has been burned, almost double the 5-year state average of 100,000 (http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/incidents/incidents_stats?year=2016.). At nearly 1,000 more wildfires this year than the average and with the worst predicted still to come, we are likely to see an unprecedented amount of damage from wildfires this year.
More than 10,000 firefighters were battling wildfires across the state as of last week. With a number of fires they have already had to battle this year and the brutal heat of this summer their heroism is all the more exemplary. Firefighters from all over the nation have had to convene in California in order to battle fires that have covered the state and grow at explosive rates due to all the natural fuel in the area.
As reported by Cal Fire in a post on their Facebook page, “wildfires are burning hotter and more unpredictable due to millions of trees dead from prolonged drought and bark beetles.”
The U.S. Forest Service estimates that there at least 66 million dead trees in a six county, 760,000-acre area in the southern Sierra Nevada region of the state. “Four consecutive years of drought in California, a dramatic rise in bark beetle infestation and warmer temperatures are leading to historic levels of tree die-off,” according to the officials (http://www.fs.fed.us/news/releases/forest-service-survey-finds-record-66-million-dead-trees-southern-sierra-nevada).
The ongoing drought conditions, millions of dead trees for fuel and the strong, warm winds due to come this time of year all combine to form the unholy trinity for wildfire conditions. According to Chris Dolce, meteorologist for The Weather Channel, “It’s during this time of year that Santa Ana winds can get active,” which “can lead to strong northeast winds through mountains and passes of Southern California,” precisely where the 66 million dead trees have been located (https://weather.com/science/nature/news/california-fire-season).
This paints a grim picture for the area, but armed with this information firefighters and residents of the area can begin to make some semblance of a plan for how they should respond if the worst happens. At this point, preventative measures are off the table.
According to a report on the epidemic of dying trees in the area produced by Dr. Nik Cunniffe of Cambridge’s Department of Plant and Sciences, “Even if huge amounts of money were to be invested to stop the epidemic starting today, the results of our model show this cannot lead to successful control for any plausible management budget.” (http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/californias-sudden-oak-death-epidemic-now-unstoppable-and-new-epidemics-must-be-managed-earlier).
It seems that what we can best hope for at this point is some favorable weather conditions and preparedness on the part of fire departments, local residents and visitors to the area. The significance of the role people have to play in reducing wildfires should not be underestimated though, even with the natural conditions being so perilous.
“About 95% of fires in California are started by people, most accidental but occasionally arson” reported Ken Pimlott, the director of Cal Fire in an article in the US Today. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/08/25/california-wildfires/89358428/) The stakes are high and consequences of careless behavior unprecedented. The importance of fire prevention awareness is paramount. Even such “innocent” behavior such as flicking a cigarette out the window of a moving vehicle, or chains dragging from a trailer could be enough to spark wildfires worse than anything we’ve seen yet this year.